On the day of the 2016 election, this Donald Trump cake was seen being wheeled into the Trump Tower in New York City. Danielle Tull Deputy Editor like pink, iced coffee, and long walks through the candle section.
Once upon a time, in a kingdom not so far away, an evil orange emperor ruled the land. With a face resembling an orangutan’s hind parts (except for the chalky ovals encircling his eyelids) and golden windswept hair dyed like jaundiced straw, the king earned the titles Chief Oppressor and Village Idiot, Donald XIX.
The Fatty Neuters from a village down South said they’d support the coup d’twat. Queen Karen promised to help but the Kamala Warriors were wary of her loyalty.
Karen usually sided with the Brads, whose army was great and loved King COVID-19. Four years earlier, the Corinthians and the Brad Boys had helped the Orange Menace ascend to the throne but Karen claimed it was her evil twin Becky.
Just before the first shot was fired, the freedom fighters surveyed the emperor’s army (which was easy because King COVID-19 forbade his forces from wearing face coverings) and saw a singular figure on the horizon riding toward the battlefield on a white horse. He stood between the forces and demanded that both sides check at his PowerPoint presentation before the battle began.
They overlooked Candace Owens, Diamond and Silk, all the Brad Boys and Corinthians who had joined King COVID-19 and sighed. Supposedly, there is a growing contingent of Black men who have been influenced by slavery options expert Kanye West and escaped from the “Democratic plantation.” Because Donald Trump has taken more Black people for rides than anyone since the Lincoln Navigator, there is a mistaken belief that the liar-in-chief has managed to garner a slight but increasing sliver of political support from Black men.
To be fair, that fairy tale came from a true story that was based on a myth. For eight years, the “Obama coalition” included Black male conservatives who usually supported Republicans.
Someone fumbled the ball in 2016: Even after Barack Obama proved that, with enough enthusiasm and attention, Black voters could propel a Democratic candidate to victory, the Democratic Party somehow didn’t bother focusing on Black voters in 2016. While white, Asian and Hispanic turnout increased i n the 2016 presidential election, for a combination of reasons (disinformation, apathy, a poorly-run campaign, a vice president who garnered as much interest as an empty jar of mayonnaise) Black voters didn’t show up for Hillary Clinton.
Michigan’s United Auto Workers Union is the biggest Black employee organization in the entire state but Hilary Clinton didn’t visit a single UAW hall in Michigan during her campaign. Because all B lack turnout decreased, the Trump coalition appears larger.
Essentially, no one showed up to the polls in 2016 except the most faithful Democrats and all the Afro-American conservatives. In fact, Trump earned a smaller percentage of the total Black vote than any president in the last 40 years.
George H. W. Bush got thirteen percent in a loss to Bill Clinton. Simply put, Trump got the small contingent of Afro-American conservatives that, aside from Obama, Republicans usually get.
This anti-mathematical narrative isn’t just being pushed by the Black version of QAnon conspiracy theorists (I’m still deciding whether they should be called Nigga non or Ice Cub anon). Social media pundits, news outlets like the Washington Post and celebrities on both sides of the aisle are musing about the perceived groundswell of Black male support for Donald Trump.
Unlike the counterfactual 2016 storyline where a sliver of Black men switched sides back to the side they were always on, this 2020 remix is kinda factual because it’s based on flawed polling data and a lack of understanding about how math works. Because of this, a single Black person’s answer could look like as many as 10 people share the same belief.
However, weighting a poll also increases the margin of error (which is the white way of saying: “the fuck if I know”). Take the most recent Presidential Preferences Survey from trusted pollster Pew Research.
It is easy to look past the scores of Black men who have endorsed the Biden-Harris ticket and point to 50 Cent and Yeezy. “There is a bigger group of Black men that support Donald Trump than there are that will vote for Donald Trump, explains Terrance Wood bury, a partner at Highly Insightful Targeting (HIT) Strategies, a messaging and strategy firm that compiles, researches and analyzes data for hard-to-reach communities including women, millennials and minorities.
Wood bury is a veteran political statistician who spent years conducting polling and focus groups for candidates in local, state, national, and international elections, along with companies such as Uber and Google. After working everywhere from Brookings Institute to Brilliant Corners Research, Wood bury and HIT Strategies are at the forefront of collecting and extracting the polling data that has been glossed over in presidential politics.
It’s a single column or a cross tab that is just reduced to ‘POC’ or ‘non-white voters.’” However, he hasn’t seen any demonstrable evidence that Trump ’s influence is increasing among Black men.
And even among the MAG roes, Wood bury says his focus group research shows that the support for Trump is less a reflection of Trump and more of a reflection of Black men’s disappointment with the politics, government and the entire two-party system. “There is a unique appeal to Donald Trump that is attractive to some black men Moreno than your typical Republicans,” notes Wood bury.
After an interminably long pause, Wood bury sighed into the phone receiver and gave a revealing answer. There were Black men who thought Reagan was a God, Martin Luther King was a troublemaker and slavery was a choice (OK, maybe that last one is a stretch.